Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.238249 12.577931 14.107722 16.005698 18.328810 21.123039 24.807839
2024-10-20 9.221086 10.760212 12.641510 15.167737 18.567458 23.141885 30.074056
2024-10-27 8.005034 9.588407 11.609849 14.471654 18.589037 24.615584 34.844995
2024-11-03 7.981137 9.868666 12.412083 16.267410 22.341016 32.385061 52.812482
2024-11-10 7.649043 9.673145 12.508773 17.032788 24.688671 38.728524 72.620219
2024-11-17 6.971757 8.918846 11.702182 16.265407 24.298363 39.940314 82.033520
2024-11-24 6.570821 8.515471 11.359611 16.171577 25.048346 43.664763 101.616715
2024-12-01 6.192838 8.109891 10.966327 15.926834 25.449865 46.784691 123.322777
2024-12-08 5.908317 7.818002 10.716966 15.886874 26.234026 51.145173 157.142737
2024-12-15 5.704119 7.629580 10.610053 16.077939 27.532029 57.484430 216.564233
2024-12-22 5.406298 7.276532 10.204642 15.667229 27.430567 59.839554 261.390761
2024-12-29 5.210407 7.068955 10.021533 15.650905 28.224888 65.446543 361.641825
2025-01-05 4.891536 6.663278 9.499010 14.966677 27.416358 65.737527 420.757494
2025-01-12 4.586250 6.264691 8.964817 14.211394 26.318179 64.630354 463.772162
2025-01-19 4.326892 5.926922 8.514216 13.581217 25.434796 64.045960 523.294295
2025-01-26 4.445342 6.201251 9.138857 15.204102 30.810146 93.949168 4009.401526
2025-02-02 4.407935 6.216300 9.304399 15.892736 33.928587 119.439812 NaN
2025-02-09 4.187016 5.913170 8.868857 15.202298 32.687365 117.504920 NaN
2025-02-16 4.060922 5.764143 8.708730 15.117753 33.360835 129.769454 NaN
2025-02-23 3.926253 5.594253 8.498987 14.897098 33.546372 139.222365 NaN
2025-03-02 3.823212 5.473611 8.374216 14.861053 34.359401 155.879215 NaN
2025-03-09 3.751224 5.402779 8.339043 15.033353 35.973297 184.948849 NaN
2025-03-16 3.621394 5.226200 8.090363 14.662840 35.504435 191.073482 NaN